Reading the live feed against the matrix…

Current reading — 24 September 2026. Case B, unbroken. The Federal Reserve raised 25 basis points on the 16th and the Bank of Japan matched it on the 18th, 7–2, to 1.25%, effective the 24th. Because both moved, the policy differential ends the cycle where it began, at 2.625 points. With core CPI at 1.7%, the real policy rate is −0.45%, and the BOJ's own forecast has inflation rising clearly above 2%; a central bank that keeps hiking is still behind. Real wages have turned positive, up 2.4% in July from a year earlier, the seventh straight gain, so that row moves from B to A; one row doesn't move the case. Tokyo's first session with the new rate in force went the wrong way for a hike: the ten-year JGB touched 3.055% intraday, its highest in about 30 years, JGB futures tripped the Osaka Exchange's circuit breaker, and the yen traded near 158.7. On the Finance Ministry's constant-maturity measure, the ten-year closed at 3.073%, up 3.1% on the day and still inside the 5% line. Much of the pressure came from New York, where the ten-year Treasury is above 5.1%. The yen is 0.4% firmer over four weeks, back in the calm band after touching 152.90 on 8 September. The Nikkei closed at 65,514, up 495 points from the 18th, without the yen surge that marks a carry unwind. Fiscal policy stays expansionary: the FY2027 requests book debt service 17% higher. The tell that would move the reading to Case C is still not a weaker yen. It is any re-imposition of yield caps or purchase guidance, or a four-week yen move of 10% in either direction. The Bank of Japan decides again on 30 October.